Daily Archives: October 24, 2012

You are browsing the site archives by date.

12 Days: Trackers tease a big debate bump for Obama. Maybe.

I’ve been saying for days that Friday is the day you want to watch for polling, and only trackers, and only PPP and Rasmussen. Those two firms have the shortest sample frame which makes them simultaneously the most sensitive to change and most subject to noise. Right now, today, October 24th, both PPP and Rasmussen only have a single day of post-debate reactions in their average. Their surveys began on the Sunday the 21st and ended on Tuesday the 23rd, but Tuesday has no debate reactions because it’s likely that all of that data came long before the 9pm debate began.

Gallup won’t have a full frame until next Tuesday at the earliest, but given the frame size of seven days, you can get a real feel for what the result is once they’ve got 4/7 debate reaction days under their belt, which would be Saturday’s report.

Read More →