25 Days: I’ll take that poll, shine it up real nice, turn that sumbitch sideways and stick it…

I’m tired, so I’ll be brief.

Gallup’s new likely voter model poll is slightly more favorable to Republicans than Rasmussen is, which really ought to raise questions about whether or not Gallup’s is a poll that people should be looking at anymore since Rasmussen has been in the bag for the GOP since 2010, when it was blowing races by as much as 40 points:

10/07
Rasmussen: Tie
Gallup: Tie

10/08
Rasmussen: Tie
Gallup: Romney +2

10/09
Rasmussen: Romney +1
Gallup: Tie

10/10
Rasmussen: Romney +1
Gallup: Romney +1

10/11
Rasmussen: Obama +1
Gallup: ??

It’s not that you should dismiss these pollsters because they show Romney winning, it’s that Rasmussen has a horrible record from 2010 and has been out of the consensus this year as well, and now Gallup appears even further off the mark than that.

That said, Mitt Romney is having a very good October. Here are the non-tracking polls since the debate:

10/1-10/4: Obama +1 (Politico/GWU/Battleground)
10/5-10/7: Tie (Washington Times/JZ Analytics)
10/4-10/7: Romney +4 (Pew Research)
10/7-10/9: Romney +1 (FOX News)
10/8-10/10: Romney +1 (Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun)

The only poll stinking up the room for Mitt Romney is the only poll showing Obama with a lead, ironically, Rasmussen.

Note: all of these polls are within the margin of error except Pew.

Now, on with the show.

SHUT UP, AND TAKE YOUR POLLS

Pennsylvania: Obama 50, Romney 42.

New Jersey: Obama 51, Romney 40.

Michigan: Obama up +6.7.

Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren ahead of Scott Brown by 6. Obama has gained 3 points in Rasmussen over the last three days. NBC says only 6-7% influenced by debate. Takeaway: Romney’s resurgence in polls may not be anything more than previously disaffected Republicans suddenly answering a lot more poll calls. Is that good, or bad, and for who?

Don’t believe tonight’s hype. If only 6-7% of people were influenced by the Presidential debate, just how many do you imagine will give two shits about Biden-Ryan? It will neither give Romney another boost, nor will it “save” Obama.

Dave Weigl: “Might have been a good idea to let Warren have that CFPB job. Just throwing that out there.

Virginia, Colorado, Wisconsin: “no sharp movement after the debate”.

Virginia: Romney ahead by 1.

– I recently gave a lot of credit to FOX News as a legitimate, brand name pollster. But asking people “which candidate relies more on a teleprompter” is making me strongly reconsider.

– Sherrod Brown (Ohio), Bill Nelson (Florida), and Tim Kaine (Virginia) all lead their Republican opponents by various margins. Kaine is only up a single point, while Brown is up by 11. Chances of a GOP Senate majority next year are looking slim. Also in Ohio: Obama 51, Romney 45.

Florida: Obama 48, Romney 47.

General election

– What in the hell was Paul Ryan thinking?

– Seen on Twitter: ambulance chaser Darrell Issa is floating the idea of holding hearings on the September BLS unemployment report. Even if you think Issa’s other investigations are legit (Fast and Furious), all this does is cheapen them, and returns the GOP to its days of holding hearings on White House use of Christmas card mailing lists during the Clinton administration.

– Also seen on Twitter: Issa’s investigations a lot like frivolous lawsuits, which Republicans want to take away from you via tort reform. But that’s not really fair, because that’s not really the goal and consequence of tort reform: it’s to make corporations accountable only to criminal law, and free them from civil accountability. It’s part of a two-pronged approach, the other prong being deregulation, which frees corporations from criminal law, too.

– The Associated Press wants you to know that it’s very, very sorry for this hilarious picture:

– Obama’s lead in Michigan is narrowing, and neither campaign is advertising there.

– Judge OK’s South Carolina’s voter ID law… for next year.

– Mitt Romney updates his campaign website section on Iran.

– One of my local paper guys: “Solution to the debate moderator problem: Do it Oprah style. Moderator has the only microphone. Candidates speak only when mod. lets them.

– Seen on Twitter: Mitt Romney is buying $2 million worth of TV ads in Colorado, Florida, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Virginia.

– Mitt Romney’s serve is leaving some of his Tea Party allies unhappy.

Politics

– A Republican state Congressmen in Wisconsin told a local newspaper (last year?) that his father warned him that “some girls rape easy“. Paul Ryan yanked his endorsement of Rivard less than an hour ago. Governor Scott Walker did the same.

Paul Tenny

Paul Tenny

I'm not a journalist but I do it anyway. I cover elections and have interviewed television writers and producers.
Paul Tenny

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