36 days: Romney may have already lost Ohio; Where to see Wed’s debate, Dems beating GOP in new voter registration again, Americans think Obama will win by 2-to-1, more..

Ohio early votingThe first of three Presidential debates will take place at the University of Denver, Colorado, at 9pm EST on Wednesday, October 3rd. The debate will focus on domestic policy and be divided into six segments of 15 minutes each, one topic per segment.

It’s scheduled to air on NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, and PBS for over-the-air national networks. The cable lineup is: CNN, FOX News, MSNBC, CNBC, FOX Business, CurrentTV, BlazeTV, and CSPAN for English language networks.

Google will broadcast all the debates live on YouTube. It’s almost certain that the HuffingtonPost and Politico will broadcast their shows live online as well before and after the debate.

Here is Nate Silver on always critical new voter registration (via Twitter):

15 states track monthly data on voter registration by party. In those states since 7/1, 34% of new voters are Dems, 20% GOP, 46% other.

The big story is that there’s a major surge in voters registering as independent, unaffiliated, or with minor parties.

Since 2008, the Dem share of voter registrations is down slightly. But all gains among independents/others, not GOP.

And in last couple of months, Dem registrations are mediocre, but GOP numbers worse. Both parties losing ground to indies.

Among the swing states on that list (NV+CO+FL+IA+PA+NC): Dems +238,652 voter regs since 7/1; GOP +154,724; indies +281,825.

Nate may part with me on this, but I’ve yet to see evidence that Romney will carry Independents over Obama. I guess the question is, who are those people really?

* * *

Election News

– It looks like Mitt Romney has already lost Ohio.

Iowa poll: Obama 49, Romney 45. Only 2% are undecided, meaning Romney can’t win the state even if they all break for him under this scenario.

Nate Silver: As Iowa Goes, So May Go Romney’s Chances?

– DKos teasing a poll: 84% of Tea Party’ers believe polls are skewed.

– Gallup tracking: Obama 49, Romney 44. Obama job approval: 46/46.

– ARG: Romney up to 50% in North Carolina, Obama trailing 46.

ABC/WaPo: On who voters think *will* win, not who they want to win: Debates, Obama 56-29, Election, Obama 63-31.

Steve Singiser: Unscrewed: How 5th-grade political analysis became a GOP article of faith

– The Boston Globe has Elizabeth Warren up 43-38 on Scott Brown, with 19% undecided.

– Two Maine papers have Obama over Romney, 52-36; Independent Angus King (50%) leads Charlie Summers (R, 28%), and Cynthia Dill (D, 12%); Legalizing same-sex marriage is up 57-36-7, and will be on the fall ballot.

– Maryland poll: Obama 57, Romney 34; Expanding commercial gambling referendum losing 38-53; legalize same-sex marriage up 49-39.

Poll: Obama has 70% support from Latinos. Hispanics are the largest minority in America, and the fastest growing. Texas is projected to become majority-Hispanic within a decade and there is at least one state (can’t remember) where the combined minorities make up a majority. If Republicans don’t do something about this, they could see a permanently blue White House in their future.

Important: New Jersey governor Chris Christie says Wednesday’s debate will turn the race upside down, based on the premise that voters will get to see the real Mitt Romney, without spin from the (naturally) biased media and (now) fake polls. But what if that doesn’t happen? Will that end all the whining from the right about polls and the media?

– One reason why Mitt Romney is struggling this year may be his soft support amongst seniors in battleground states, a typically reliable GOP bloc. Maybe it’s Medicare, maybe it’s just Mitt. Or maybe it’s nothing and they’ll still turn out on election day.

– Dear Ann Romney: you’re not helping.

– The White House is blaming intelligence (but not the services) for its initial reaction to the attack on America’s consulate in Libya. Before anyone freaks out, remember yellow cake uranium and Nigeria? Aluminum tubes? Chemical and biological weapons labs in the back of tractor trailers? This would hardly be the first time that the intel community has dropped the ball, or that they’ve been made a scapegoat. Perhaps the bigger takeaway: the White House feels like this is something they have to address, which is odd since polls show no negative fallout for Obama on Libya. Perhaps a rare fumble by the winning team?

– Pollster outlines a possible electoral math win for Romney.

– Obama leads Romney on Medicare in battleground states, sometimes by wide margins.

– Chuck Todd wants to know how Romney and Obama would handle democracy protests in Saudi Arabia, in the context of Egypt. I’d rather know how Romney would handle democracy protests in America, and Obama to explain his secretive, ugly response to them last year. Peaceful Occupy Wall Street protests were often broken up by hundreds of police in riot gear, armed with military-grade weapons, attack violently with tear gas and rubber bullet shotguns, arrested without cause, and even American journalists were beaten and arrested.

– What the fuck is going on in Nevada, man?

– Shoot me. Please. Just do it. DO IT NOW.

Politics

– Mississippi Republican: kill all gays. No, seriously. Kill them all. Cause the bible says so. (And yeah, actually, it does.)

– Time Magazine on what none of us are talking about: a military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities could potentially kill 5,000 to 80,000 civilians, expose more than 300,000 to radioactive material. Could be as bad as Chernobyl.

– Legalizing euthanasia is leading in Massachusetts, 68-20. Legalizing pot for medical purposes up 69-22. No word on pot for fun and profit, though. (Boston Globe)

– The Times’ media guy responds to Paul Ryan’s complaints about media bias: Republicans have the biggest cable news network (FOX News), biggest newspaper (Wall Street Journal), and three of the four biggest radio hosts.

– 60 Minutes/Vanity Fair poll: Citizens United sucks ass, 52-4.

– DHS has ordered ICE (formally INS) to treat same-sex partners as relatives in deportation proceedings, temporarily ending one of the cruelest effects of anti-gay discrimination. This will probably be moot when the Defense of Marriage Act passes through the Supreme Court.

– Illegal domestic spying begun under the Bush administration has skyrocketed under the Obama administration.

– Female leaders can stink on women’s issues, too.

Paul Tenny

Paul Tenny

I'm not a journalist but I do it anyway. I cover elections and have interviewed television writers and producers.
Paul Tenny

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