Monthly Archives: August 2018

You are browsing the site archives by month.

538: Dems have 75% chance to win House majority

Nate Silver has his model up for projecting control of the House of Representatives after the mid-term election: Democrats have a 75% chance to win a majority of seats. Those are odds you’d rather have than not, but not as strong as you’d instinctively feel.

Republicans retaining control at a 25% chance would not even be an upset — run the mid-term elections, hit the reset switch, and re-run them again three more times and Democrats come out on top 3-of-4 times, Republicans 1-in-4. If I’m not mistaken, Hillary Clinton had something like a 75% chance to win in 2016 and look how that turned out.

This stuff isn’t nearly as simplistic as averaging public polls, these models are very complex that adhere to strict scientific methodology. If you like that sort of thing, go check out the details of the model.

Trump’s vote fraud commission found nothing

ProPublica with the dirt:

In January, when Trump abruptly dissolved the commission, he claimed that it had “substantial evidence of voter fraud” and that the commission’s “initial findings” would be turned over to the Department of Homeland Security. But the documents released today show there was nothing to support these claims. [..] The draft report included a prewritten section called “Evidence of Election Integrity and Voter Fraud Issues.” The section, with few exceptions, wound up almost entirely blank.

The Bush administration ran on the supposed existence of systemic vote fraud, and once in power, thoroughly investigated the issue for nearly half a decade only to come up as blank as the Trump commission report did:

Five years after the Bush administration began a crackdown on voter fraud, the Justice Department has turned up virtually no evidence of any organized effort to skew federal elections, according to court records and interviews.

In other completely unrelated news, Republicans recently voted down legislation in the Senate that would have increased spending on election security by $250 million for the 2018 mid-term election. Nothing to see here. Move along.

QAnon: The deepest, darkest psychotics around

I needed something new to do on my breaks at work after using up all my phone’s data not even two weeks into the month of July, so I loaded my tablet with books and saved articles that I’m finally reading after saving them and then ignoring them for months, if not longer. (Google Books and Amazon’s Kindle app for Android gear are great, as is Pocket for saved stories).

It took a few half-hour breaks to get through it, but Joseph Bernstein’s story about Lane Davis was a compelling, though quite tragic, read that was one of the first things I ventured through after getting myself somewhat disconnected from the online world for 30 minutes of my day.

Lane was my introduction to the far right’s latest psychotic obsession, that all liberals are secret pedophiles who are working together to normalize child abuse. No, really: All of them.

Read More →