Post-debate snap polls: Five polls in, including a swing state, Obama “won” them all.

CBS: Obama 37%, Tied 33%, Romney 30%.

CNN: Obama 46%, Romney 39%. (That’s with a +8 point sample of Republicans!)

PPP in swing state Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 44%. (58/36 among independents, +3 GOP sample)

CBS5/SurveyUSA in California: Obama 56%, Romney 32%, Tie 12%.

Per Nate Silver: “Looks like Obama named winner by CBS, Google and PPP snap polls. No word from CNN poll yet.”

Ari Fleischer and Liz Mair called it a tie. Most cable pundits calling it an Obama win. Charles Krauthammer calls it for Obama on “points”. Will have more as it becomes available.

Continue reading “Post-debate snap polls: Five polls in, including a swing state, Obama “won” them all.”

20 Days: I reject your reality and substitute it with my own.

substitute aliensTonight’s Presidential debate is the second of three, hosted at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. Start time is 9pm EST, 8pm CST, 7pm MST, and 6pm PST. The format of tonight’s debate is a Town Hall where candidates will take questions directly from a heavily screened audience that has questions pre-approved by the moderator, creating the illusion of Town Hall without actually having one.

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have agreed to that they will not ask each other questions, propose any pledges regarding policies or agendas, answer audience questions directly, treat you with respect or as an intelligent adult, or walk more than a few feet away from their podium at any time. A referee will be on hand to count any candidate out who dares venture from the stage to talk to an undecided voter face-to-face, although the possibility of manager interference and distraction is high.

The audience has agreed not to ask questions about controversial policies that both candidates agree on, such as drone wars in half a dozen Middle Eastern countries that the U.N. says are probably war crimes, that terrorists insist are the reason they became terrorists, including an attack by NATO that just slaughtered three innocent civilians in Afghanistan on Sunday, and previous drone attacks on civilians responding to previous drone strikes and even funerals.

Each candidate will have two minutes to respond to each question, ensuring repetition of talking points and no serious thought or explanation of policy. You will learn absolutely nothing, and that’s the point.

In other words, Presidential debates have finally been boiled down into an hours worth of the interviews you see on cable news in the late evening, lacking all substance and news value and easily eaten in chicken nugget sized bites, without having to pay Chris Matthews to orgasm on national television.

Thank God for the small things.

Continue reading “20 Days: I reject your reality and substitute it with my own.”

21 Days: Mitt Romney’s bounce recedes nationally and in some swing states, losing electoral college 281-248

I’d decided this story would be about Mitt Romney’s clear surge to the lead (albeit a small lead inside the margin of error and nothing like the 4-5 point lead that Barack Obama enjoyed throughout September) in national polls, and the tightening of several swing states. Because when I made that decision on Saturday, that was reality.

Today it’s not. Mitt Romney’s gain from the first presidential appears to be fading in some polls and holding in others. Not the kind of trend Romney supporters would like to see.

Continue reading “21 Days: Mitt Romney’s bounce recedes nationally and in some swing states, losing electoral college 281-248”

25 Days: I’ll take that poll, shine it up real nice, turn that sumbitch sideways and stick it…

I’m tired, so I’ll be brief.

Gallup’s new likely voter model poll is slightly more favorable to Republicans than Rasmussen is, which really ought to raise questions about whether or not Gallup’s is a poll that people should be looking at anymore since Rasmussen has been in the bag for the GOP since 2010, when it was blowing races by as much as 40 points:

10/07
Rasmussen: Tie
Gallup: Tie

10/08
Rasmussen: Tie
Gallup: Romney +2

10/09
Rasmussen: Romney +1
Gallup: Tie

10/10
Rasmussen: Romney +1
Gallup: Romney +1

10/11
Rasmussen: Obama +1
Gallup: ??

It’s not that you should dismiss these pollsters because they show Romney winning, it’s that Rasmussen has a horrible record from 2010 and has been out of the consensus this year as well, and now Gallup appears even further off the mark than that.

Continue reading “25 Days: I’ll take that poll, shine it up real nice, turn that sumbitch sideways and stick it…”

26 Days: Q&A round 3, ask me anything about politics and the election!

Before I open the floor, here are the latest numbers.

Electoral collage, then and now

Talking Points Memo
08/10: Obama 323, Romney 191
10/10: Obama 270, Romney 206

Real Clear Politics
08/10: Obama 247, Romney 191
10/10: Obama 217, Romney 181

Pollster
08/10: Obama 281, Romney 191
10/10: Obama 263, Romney 206

CNN
08/10: Obama 247, Romney 206
10/10: Obama 237, Romney 191

Nate Silver
08/10: Obama 301.1, Romney 236.9
10/10: Obama 296.7, Romney 241.3

Continue reading “26 Days: Q&A round 3, ask me anything about politics and the election!”

27 Days: National public polling still unstable, Obama still big favorite to win electoral college

Something happened the other day that could have had profound implications on the way that people see the race this week, but it wasn’t to be. Gallup releasing a three day culling of its seven day tracking poll, showing Mitt Romney and President Obama tied at 47% for after the debate, was far more insightful after Obama regained his five point lead in the seven day tracker. It probably meant that after news of unemployment dropping had spread around and hysteria over Romney’s good (but hardly earth shattering — folks, you don’t win a real debate by lying your ass off and steam rolling a poor moderator) performance Wednesday had setteled, that Obama had not just regained his pre-debate lead, but actually increased yet.

The problem with that is two-fold. First, we couldn’t ever know that for sure because unlike the stupid game Gallup just played with the three day debate sample, they don’t release actual daily results. Second, Gallup just switched from its registered voter model to a historically bad likely voter model. Obama went from a five point lead with registered voters on Monday to a two point deficit with likely voters today.

Continue reading “27 Days: National public polling still unstable, Obama still big favorite to win electoral college”

28 Days: Romney definitely gains in polls, with *lots* of caveats

I’ll do my best to give you as much polling information in as tight a package as possible. In service of that, here’s the executive summary: Mitt Romney gained on Barack Obama in tracking polls once they had 2-3 days worth of data, and a few swing states have tightened. It looks to be +2-3 points nationally for Romney and around that in the few states. But it wasn’t a big enough bounce for Romney to take a lead nationally other than with Rasmussen. Ipsos/Reuters, RAND, and Gallup showed gains, but already had Obama with a lead large enough to absorb a 2-3 point tightening.

There are two takeaways here. First, I’m personally wondering if this change in polling is more the good debate performance for Romney, or the final deflation of the convention bounce for Obama with until the debate, had not subsided at all. The reason for that is the second takeaway: Romney isn’t back where he started with this bounce, he’s actually worse off than before the conventions.

Continue reading “28 Days: Romney definitely gains in polls, with *lots* of caveats”

31 Days: Romney “winning” debate hasn’t moved tracking polls an inch; Why the job report was good news

Gallup, Rasmussen, and Ipsos/Reuters were the first pollsters to cover the Wednesday debate because they do rolling tracking (they poll every day and average the results over a set span). Gallup shows a single point gain for Obama, Rasmussen and Ipsos/Reuters show no change at all. All of these polls include results from before the debate.

These are very small data points subject to lots of noise, but added (not literally added, more like averaged) together, the margin of error drops significantly. With all covering at least one full day of post-debate sentiment, there has been no change in the 2012 general election. Most people believe that Mitt Romney “won” the debate, and almost nobody changed their mind because of it.

Barack Obama remains a big favorite to win based on state polling and electoral math.

Continue reading “31 Days: Romney “winning” debate hasn’t moved tracking polls an inch; Why the job report was good news”

32 Days: Romney did well, and why it probably doesn’t matter

I like to look for gut-based analysis from people smarter than I am, consider what they think, and then use my own instincts to decide what makes sense. Based on what little I’ve seen since last night, there are only two things that really mattered.

The primary reason that Mitt Romney did well last night is that he finally abandoned the fake cloak of extremism that he’d adopted to win the GOP primary. Romney’s argument that he’d better work across the isle because he’s already done it in Massachusetts was central to that transformation, and I’m sure will be ignored by everyone in the media and pundit class. Romney was able to work well with Democrats in Massachusetts because he himself governed like one. This is a man who once said that Roe v. Wade is the law of the land and should not be overturned, that a woman’s right to choose was important to him and that he’d fight for it, and he even said he was more pro-gay rights than Ted Kennedy.

Continue reading “32 Days: Romney did well, and why it probably doesn’t matter”

34 Days: Latest polls and pre-debate news

I wasn’t going to do a news dump today, especially when I’d much rather have this story get read, but I changed my mind.

Reminder

The first Presidential debate is on tonight at 9PM. Check all major broadcast networks and cable channels and you’ll find it, and it’ll be right here on YouTube. If you want to go into this thing open minded, try watching on YouTube or C-SPAN, where you won’t get partisan commentary, but also no analysis.

Election News

– NBC News/Wall Street Journal, single most important issue: The economy (46%), Social issues (15%), Entitlement programs (12%), Health care (10%), Budget deficit (6%).

Continue reading “34 Days: Latest polls and pre-debate news”