Tag Archives: 2018 Election

538: Dems have 75% chance to win House majority

Nate Silver has his model up for projecting control of the House of Representatives after the mid-term election: Democrats have a 75% chance to win a majority of seats. Those are odds you’d rather have than not, but not as strong as you’d instinctively feel.

Republicans retaining control at a 25% chance would not even be an upset — run the mid-term elections, hit the reset switch, and re-run them again three more times and Democrats come out on top 3-of-4 times, Republicans 1-in-4. If I’m not mistaken, Hillary Clinton had something like a 75% chance to win in 2016 and look how that turned out.

This stuff isn’t nearly as simplistic as averaging public polls, these models are very complex that adhere to strict scientific methodology. If you like that sort of thing, go check out the details of the model.

Trump’s vote fraud commission found nothing

ProPublica with the dirt:

In January, when Trump abruptly dissolved the commission, he claimed that it had “substantial evidence of voter fraud” and that the commission’s “initial findings” would be turned over to the Department of Homeland Security. But the documents released today show there was nothing to support these claims. [..] The draft report included a prewritten section called “Evidence of Election Integrity and Voter Fraud Issues.” The section, with few exceptions, wound up almost entirely blank.

The Bush administration ran on the supposed existence of systemic vote fraud, and once in power, thoroughly investigated the issue for nearly half a decade only to come up as blank as the Trump commission report did:

Five years after the Bush administration began a crackdown on voter fraud, the Justice Department has turned up virtually no evidence of any organized effort to skew federal elections, according to court records and interviews.

In other completely unrelated news, Republicans recently voted down legislation in the Senate that would have increased spending on election security by $250 million for the 2018 mid-term election. Nothing to see here. Move along.