Tag Archives: Elections

538: Dems have 75% chance to win House majority

Nate Silver has his model up for projecting control of the House of Representatives after the mid-term election: Democrats have a 75% chance to win a majority of seats. Those are odds you’d rather have than not, but not as strong as you’d instinctively feel.

Republicans retaining control at a 25% chance would not even be an upset — run the mid-term elections, hit the reset switch, and re-run them again three more times and Democrats come out on top 3-of-4 times, Republicans 1-in-4. If I’m not mistaken, Hillary Clinton had something like a 75% chance to win in 2016 and look how that turned out.

This stuff isn’t nearly as simplistic as averaging public polls, these models are very complex that adhere to strict scientific methodology. If you like that sort of thing, go check out the details of the model.

Trump’s vote fraud commission found nothing

ProPublica with the dirt:

In January, when Trump abruptly dissolved the commission, he claimed that it had “substantial evidence of voter fraud” and that the commission’s “initial findings” would be turned over to the Department of Homeland Security. But the documents released today show there was nothing to support these claims. [..] The draft report included a prewritten section called “Evidence of Election Integrity and Voter Fraud Issues.” The section, with few exceptions, wound up almost entirely blank.

The Bush administration ran on the supposed existence of systemic vote fraud, and once in power, thoroughly investigated the issue for nearly half a decade only to come up as blank as the Trump commission report did:

Five years after the Bush administration began a crackdown on voter fraud, the Justice Department has turned up virtually no evidence of any organized effort to skew federal elections, according to court records and interviews.

In other completely unrelated news, Republicans recently voted down legislation in the Senate that would have increased spending on election security by $250 million for the 2018 mid-term election. Nothing to see here. Move along.

Hillary Clinton will win tonight, here’s why

2016 US Presidential Election predictionIf you just want my prediction, here it is:

Hillary Clinton: 322 electoral votes
Donald Trump: 216 electoral votes

If you’d like to know why, then there’s four things you need to know about polling right now:

1. National polls don’t matter. They’ve never mattered and the media should stop using them. US Presidential elections are decided by state votes, whoever wins the most electoral votes – each state has at least 1 and the number is based roughly on population – wins the Presidency.

Hillary Clinton will easily win California and its 55 electoral votes. That number – 55– comes from the total number of Representatives and Senators the state has, with the former being based on population determined by the most recent census. California has the most EVs because it has the largest population, while North Dakota has 3 EVs because hardly anybody (by comparison) lives there.

It takes 270 EVs to win the election.

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Thoughts on the VP debate

Profile pictures of Time Kaine and Mike Pence, October 2016.

My hot take on who won the Pence vs. Kaine debate is that Tim Kaine won simply because he did his job being a proxy debater for Hillary Clinton. Mike Pence lost because he pretty successfully pitched the 2016 Republican Party agenda — a good bit of which his running mate doesn’t support — instead of being a proxy for Donald Trump.

Pence did exactly what he knows how to do: argue for himself.

Had this been Pence vs Kaine for a Senate seat, Pence wins because of that. But it’s not. Pence did zero damage to Hillary Clinton and Kaine, by repeating a lot of the unpopular and contradictory things Trump has said, reminded people they aren’t voting for Mike Pence, they’re voting for Trump. And Pence just didn’t want to do that.

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Scalia’s death puts the GOP in a real bind

Supreme Court justice Antonin Scalia

Supreme Court justice Antonin Scalia

Antonin Scalia had no business being a judge in any level of court, but that’s as far as I’m willing to go speaking ill of someone who just passed away. I believe that all life is precious (Scalia did not) so I’m sad that he’s dead.

With that out of the way, this really puts Republicans in a tough spot. You can safely ignore whatever the GOP Presidential candidates say about whether or not he he should be replaced after the 2016 election — they have no say in the matter. Only Rand Paul gets to vote on the next nominee and he has no more power over the process than that. Read More →

Keeping your mouth shut as a virtue

I haven’t written about politics for a few years now but I remember how viciously stupid it all was, and so I shouldn’t be surprised that little has changed since then. I suppose when I left that scene and dedicated a seriously large (too large) chunk of my life just trying to have fun with good people that I forgot how rude and dumb a lot of people are, especially online. And this particular example hit me in a sensitive spot: judging others.

There’s a link in my Fecesbook timeline this afternoon to this piece, which defends super delegates as a firewall against outside extremists taking control of a political party. What they really are, are a firewall against political candidates that are popular with voters from gaining control of political parties run by people that voters dislike, and often despise, for ignoring what voters want in favor of what the ruling political and corporate class want. Read More →

Beware your prophets

Michael Barone's 2012 battleground predictions.I’d like to think that the pundit right learned something from the 2012 election, but it doesn’t seem that way. When polls said Barack Obama was leading, they decided it wasn’t true, that those polls were biased and only they knew the truth. They were all “skewed” by firms in the bag for Democrats. Then Obama won the election proving that most pollsters were unbiased, non-partisan and spot on.

Republicans/conservatives were left with two choices: Again embrace the flawed logic that got them in trouble in 2012, or examine where they went wrong and fix what was broken.

They went with the latter.

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The Deconstruction of Falling Stars

Rather than writing some lengthy dissertation on the 2012 election, I think I’ll opt for a series of short thoughts that, like non-partisan polling analysis, allows people to consider everything and then form their own conclusions.

After listening to most of what Rush Limbaugh has had to say since November 7th (I opted to listen to his show for myself), it occurred to me this afternoon that the new conservative meme of couched racism as a kind of caulk to repair breaches in their information filters and ecosphere created by the poll denial disaster has a fatal flaw: Jews and women.

Before I get to that, let me explain how I’ve arrived at the racism angle.

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The Long Night

Everything that needs to be said has already been said. So here are poll closing times for some important states:

7:00pm EST: Florida (except Western panhandle), New Hampshire, Virginia.

7:30pm EST: North Carolina, Ohio.

8:00pm EST: Florida Western panhandle, Pennsylvania.

9:00pm EST: Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin

10:00pm EST: Iowa, Nevada.

The final analysis and projection of all battleground states:

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30 hours: Intersections in Real Time

I strongly urge people only to dismiss information if they have a good justification for believing that it’s wrong, or not relevant. Disliking or disagreeing with it isn’t enough. So I will from time-to-time listen to conservative talk radio.

You have to hand it to these guys, Limbaugh and Beck. They are smooth talkers. It’s like they are talking to you, not a radio microphone. It’s almost smoothing and it’s very disarming. It’s why they are as popular and successful as they are.

I credit Limbaugh today with being intelligent enough to know that polls don’t make sense to him, but he doesn’t understand why. Here’s why.

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