Tag Archives: Elections

12 Days: Trackers tease a big debate bump for Obama. Maybe.

I’ve been saying for days that Friday is the day you want to watch for polling, and only trackers, and only PPP and Rasmussen. Those two firms have the shortest sample frame which makes them simultaneously the most sensitive to change and most subject to noise. Right now, today, October 24th, both PPP and Rasmussen only have a single day of post-debate reactions in their average. Their surveys began on the Sunday the 21st and ended on Tuesday the 23rd, but Tuesday has no debate reactions because it’s likely that all of that data came long before the 9pm debate began.

Gallup won’t have a full frame until next Tuesday at the earliest, but given the frame size of seven days, you can get a real feel for what the result is once they’ve got 4/7 debate reaction days under their belt, which would be Saturday’s report.

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13 Days: America is getting what it says it always wants: two centrists more concerned with winning than standing for something.

Debate screencapWe’re getting close.

Everybody has their own ideas about what they saw last night, and no polls will have a full sample until Friday at the earliest. So ideas are all we have, and here are mine.

I heard on NPR that Barack Obama is fond of saying that he looks up to George H. W. Bush on foreign policy. That’s why people say that on foreign policy and national security, Obama is closer to being a moderate Republican than even a conservative Democrat. The amusing instances of agreement between Obama and Mitt Romney last night illustrate that quite well. And it reinforces for the second time something that I saw on Twitter immediately after Obama’s shellacking in Denver: Romney behaved like a moderate Republican former governor of Massachusetts.

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Four snap polls, four Obama victories; CBS: Obama wins by 30 points, larger than Romney’s first debate win

Here are four snap polls for the third and final debate.

CNN was out first, with Obama “winning” 48-40 among registered voters, an eight point margin. CNN continues to use a skewed sample that has more Republicans than any of their other national polls this year, so unbalanced that Wolf Blitzer has had to state a disclaimer every time they reference the poll on air. It’s unclear why CNN continues to do this.

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14 Days: Trackers and national polls tied up, electoral college still showing a comfortable Obama victory

There are now four distinct trends from national polling since the conventions.

Phase 1, Sept 22 – Oct 2

Barack Obama dominated the month of September from a strong convention performance, where he didn’t trail in any national poll for the entire month, other than in tracking. The only poll to show Mitt Romney leading that entire month was Rasmussen, which showed Romney up by two points 9/14 – 9/16. That’s important, because with so many other polls showing a Romney lead or a tie, Rasmussen is showing the same results today as it did when Obama as clearly dominating the race in September.

Obama’s leads ranged from a single point to a high of nine points.

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17 Days: Romney sinking in battleground state, national polls, trackers, electoral college — basically everywhere

I did news yesterday, so today is back to polling. Put simply, Mitt Romney’s debate bounce is now showing signs of burning off virtually everywhere you look. My poll aggregator shows Barack Obama leading 23 of 25 national polls (including tracking at various times) between September 22nd and October 2nd. Then between October 2nd and October 10th, Mitt Romney lead out of 10 of 13 polls. Since then, Obama has lead 5 of 6 national polls with only PPP showing a lead for Mitt Romney, and PPP’s three-day tracker showed the race tied yesterday, and Obama leading by a single point today.

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18 Days: A new tracker, a new aggregator, another DOMA loss, and news.

A quick bit about polling and then I’ll do some news aggregation.

The more I use Real Clear Politics’ poll aggreagtor, the more I dislike it. They use two right-leaning trackers, Rasmussen and IBD, but exclude Ipsos/Reuters. And I don’t know if they’ll include PPP’s brand-spanking-new three day tracker, which will be infinitely more useful than Rasmussen’s. Now we’ve got perhaps the best pollster in the country doing a three day sensitive and quick (but noisy) tracker, a very solid mid-range 4-5 tracker from very credible Ipsos/Reuters, and an increasingly laughable long-range 7-day tracker from Gallup.

Yes, folks, Gallup thinks Mitt Romney is leading by 7 points today. And the entire polling analysis world probably thinks Gallup is running its reputation into the ground. It’s not even who is winning there, it’s that it’s such a wicked outlier. No other national non-tracking poll has Romney up by more than 4 points, and that was PPP, a Democratic pollster doing a poll for Daily Kos/SEIU. Of the last seven non-tracker national polls, Romney lead by 4 and 3 points, and Obama lead all the rest between 1 and 3 points.

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19 Days: Romney up by 6 with Gallup, but Obama wins all post-debate snap polls

Most of my recent stories have been focused on polling, but the only meaningful polls for the next week or so are the snap polls that were done to gauge voter response to the second Presidential debate. Those will only take a minute to report, and then for the next week you can pretty much forget about polling. It’ll be Saturday at the earliest that any tracker will have a full sample of post-debate data (Rasmussen). Ipsos/Reuters won’t have a full sample to report until Monday, although they did a post-debate snap that I’ll report below. Gallup won’t have a full sample until Wednesday.

I put so little faith in the Investors Business Daily tracker that I don’t even know what their sample length is, and I don’t really care.

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Post-debate snap polls: Five polls in, including a swing state, Obama “won” them all.

CBS: Obama 37%, Tied 33%, Romney 30%.

CNN: Obama 46%, Romney 39%. (That’s with a +8 point sample of Republicans!)

PPP in swing state Colorado: Obama 48%, Romney 44%. (58/36 among independents, +3 GOP sample)

CBS5/SurveyUSA in California: Obama 56%, Romney 32%, Tie 12%.

Per Nate Silver: “Looks like Obama named winner by CBS, Google and PPP snap polls. No word from CNN poll yet.”

Ari Fleischer and Liz Mair called it a tie. Most cable pundits calling it an Obama win. Charles Krauthammer calls it for Obama on “points”. Will have more as it becomes available.

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20 Days: I reject your reality and substitute it with my own.

substitute aliensTonight’s Presidential debate is the second of three, hosted at Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York. Start time is 9pm EST, 8pm CST, 7pm MST, and 6pm PST. The format of tonight’s debate is a Town Hall where candidates will take questions directly from a heavily screened audience that has questions pre-approved by the moderator, creating the illusion of Town Hall without actually having one.

Barack Obama and Mitt Romney have agreed to that they will not ask each other questions, propose any pledges regarding policies or agendas, answer audience questions directly, treat you with respect or as an intelligent adult, or walk more than a few feet away from their podium at any time. A referee will be on hand to count any candidate out who dares venture from the stage to talk to an undecided voter face-to-face, although the possibility of manager interference and distraction is high.

The audience has agreed not to ask questions about controversial policies that both candidates agree on, such as drone wars in half a dozen Middle Eastern countries that the U.N. says are probably war crimes, that terrorists insist are the reason they became terrorists, including an attack by NATO that just slaughtered three innocent civilians in Afghanistan on Sunday, and previous drone attacks on civilians responding to previous drone strikes and even funerals.

Each candidate will have two minutes to respond to each question, ensuring repetition of talking points and no serious thought or explanation of policy. You will learn absolutely nothing, and that’s the point.

In other words, Presidential debates have finally been boiled down into an hours worth of the interviews you see on cable news in the late evening, lacking all substance and news value and easily eaten in chicken nugget sized bites, without having to pay Chris Matthews to orgasm on national television.

Thank God for the small things.

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21 Days: Mitt Romney’s bounce recedes nationally and in some swing states, losing electoral college 281-248

I’d decided this story would be about Mitt Romney’s clear surge to the lead (albeit a small lead inside the margin of error and nothing like the 4-5 point lead that Barack Obama enjoyed throughout September) in national polls, and the tightening of several swing states. Because when I made that decision on Saturday, that was reality.

Today it’s not. Mitt Romney’s gain from the first presidential appears to be fading in some polls and holding in others. Not the kind of trend Romney supporters would like to see.

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