Tag Archives: Fivethirtyeight

538: Dems have 75% chance to win House majority

Nate Silver has his model up for projecting control of the House of Representatives after the mid-term election: Democrats have a 75% chance to win a majority of seats. Those are odds you’d rather have than not, but not as strong as you’d instinctively feel.

Republicans retaining control at a 25% chance would not even be an upset — run the mid-term elections, hit the reset switch, and re-run them again three more times and Democrats come out on top 3-of-4 times, Republicans 1-in-4. If I’m not mistaken, Hillary Clinton had something like a 75% chance to win in 2016 and look how that turned out.

This stuff isn’t nearly as simplistic as averaging public polls, these models are very complex that adhere to strict scientific methodology. If you like that sort of thing, go check out the details of the model.

538’s climate science data problem compounded by legal threats

Paul Krugman has been throwing elbows at 538-ESPN lately because of a measurable decline in the quality of content from what we’re used to seeing from Nate Silver when he worked at the New York Times, and before that, writing for himself on Blogspot.

The first response I saw to that criticism was supposed to be a sort of self-parody as an apology, I guess. To me it comes off as a petulant act that he’d never have gotten away with while at the Times, and an example of where he’s gone off the rail.

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