Rubio joins Jindall in rebuking Limbaugh and Romney

I think it’s clear now that yes, a split is going to form in the Republican Party, and the first fight is going to be over how to frame Mitt Romney’s election fail. Marco Rubio, the pundit class’s front-runner for the 2016 GOP nomination, is joining Bobby Jindal in pushing back against Rush Limbaugh’s meme that everyone who voted for Barack Obama just want “free stuff”. Romney picked that excuse amongst the others orbiting the toilet drain since the election ended.

This argument isn’t new for Romney, as I’m sure you’re all familiar with his infamous 47% comments. What’s worth noting is that most conservatives ran away from those comments when they came out and more than just a few openly blamed them for Romney’s loss, if he did in fact go on to lose.

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Obama’s surge in Florida and Ohio ends Mitt Romney’s campaign if it holds

Today’s very bad day for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan:

* Tracking polls are junk, but Gallup has Obama up by three point over Romney, Obama’s job approval is up to 51%.

* The Times/CBS/Quinnipiac has Obama pulling away in Ohio (+10) and Florida (+9), two states that Obama can lose while still having a decent shot at winning the electoral college, and two states that Mitt Romney absolutely cannot win without. He’s also leading by 12 points in Pennsylvania. Obama leads by 25% amongst Women in Ohio. Obama was only leading by 2 points in the previous poll of Ohio by that pollster.

* Same poll: Obama leading Romney amongst African Americans in Ohio 98-0.

*Obama is surging in support amongst… Catholics, now up 54-39.

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Five more points on Mitt Romney’s plan to nowhere

Paul Krugman takes Mitt Romney’s five point plan and addresses it point-by-point, but I think there’s a lot more to be said than can fit comfortably into a paragraph each. The White House did the same thing, which I haven’t read.

Here are the points, Krugman’s take, and my take below that.

First, by 2020, North America will be energy independent by taking full advantage of our oil and coal and gas and nuclear and renewables.

Krugman’s take: “This describes what Romney wants to see happen, not what he’d do to make it happen. But to the extent it means anything, it means scrapping environmental protection so that we can drill, baby, drill. Why doesn’t he say that? Because voters care about the environment.”

My take: I’m not sure where these Romney points originated so I can’t blame the Romney campaign for making such a simple geography error, but it’s pretty embarrassing regardless. “North America” is a continent that includes 23 sovereign nations including Canada, the United States of America, Cuba, and Mexico. Neither Mitt Romney nor Barack Obama decides energy policy for North America.

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Plurality of Americans don’t like Mitt Romney, majority don’t like the GOP; Obama has lead or tied in 57 of the last 66 polls.

Just a little recent polling data to cure in your brain of the weekend. A joint CBS/New York Times poll found that Americans hold favorable views of the Democratic Party 49-43, and the Republican Party 36-55. That’s a 13 point deficit for the GOP on the plus side, a +6 margin for Democrats, and a -19 point margin for Republicans.

Mitt Romney is viewed favorably by just 33% of Americans, with 40% holding unfavorable views. With numbers like that, Romney really should be losing this election by a more substantial margin. It really shows just how many conservatives/Republicans dislike their own candidate, but dislike Barack Obama even more.

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GOP insiders: This is Romney’s “Lehman moment”, “not ready for prime time”, “unbelievable”, “disgrace”, and “a disaster”

Mitt RomneyMitt Romney was already losing this race. He’s lead fewer than a quarter of national polls going back to 2011 and has never once lead the national average. He didn’t get a bump from the Republican National Convention while Barack Obama got a 6-7 point bump, and all relevant electoral college projections show a relatively easy win for Obama (five for five).

When you’ve been losing since before you won your party’s nomination, and are still behind with less than two months to go, as Greg Mitchell put it, “We’re at that point during a campaign where party with losing prez candidate starts to worry about taking big hit in Congress.”

Even a poor jobs report last Friday didn’t help Romney. Obama’s gains in the polls include the day the jobs report was released and several days after.

That goes a long ways towards explaining mistakes like this that always come from desperate campaigns and desperate candidates.

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PRESIDENT OBAMA’S TERRIBLE, HORRIBLE, NO GOOD, VERY BAD WEEK

Laughing ObamaEllen Carmichael is a former communications director for Herman Cain’s presidential campaign and a propagandist in the truest sense of the word. Reading her Twitter stream is no different than reading press releases from the Republican National Committee, or in this case, literally repeating verbatim, press releases from the Romney Campaign that look like they were written by a stupid and vindictive child.

If there is one place to see the opposite of reality, this is it.

This Tweet came from this embarrassing press release published on September 7th, carrying the title “PRESIDENT OBAMA’S TERRIBLE, HORRIBLE, NO GOOD, VERY BAD WEEK”.

I sincerely hope that the Romney campaign isn’t paying money to have these written.

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In 24 hours, Mitt Romney says he’ll keep parts of Obamacare, then he won’t, then he will

Mitt Romney pledged flat out to repeal the PPACA right after the Supreme Court told Romney and the entire Republican Party that they were wrong about its constitutionality. Yesterday on Meet The Press, Romney changed course and said he would keep the provision on pre-existing conditions and some of the other more popular provisions.

Today, his campaign is saying that no, they are going to repeal all of it, and then pass their own based on completely different reform ideas. One wonders what those ideas could be, since Mitt Romney’s ideas for health care reform in Massachusetts are identical to Obamacare.

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Academic model shows a big win for Mitt Romney this fall

A reader and friend asked me what I thought about a paper out of the University of Colorado projecting a (relatively) big win coming this fall for Mitt Romney in the electoral college, in this Q&A I did yesterday for anything and everything political. he paper, by political science professors Kenneth Bickers and Michael Berry (hereby referred to as the Bickers-Berry model), seems heavily weighted by economic factors and predicts Romney winning every single swing state, for a 320-218 electoral vote victory.

Bickers and Berry are touting their model has correctly predicting every presidential election since 1980, but that’s misleading. This model (as Nate Silver notes below in a Tweet I’ll quote) is a new model, and hasn’t correctly predicted anything yet. It would have predicted past elections if it had existed before each of them took place, but that’s entirely different than claiming that it has already predicted them.

Here’s what I said in a very rushed analysis, without having read the paper:

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Mitt Romney is in trouble

I’ll finally get my in-depth election analysis up next week, but for now, here are a few things to consider.

Off the top of my head, I only know of four sites that are running electoral college projections. Talking Points Memo, Pollster, CNN, and Real Clear Politics. Each site has its own methodology for assigning states to candidates based on the “safe”, “lean”, and “tossup” categories, and all can be argued with. For example, only TPM has Florida and its 29 electoral votes assigned to a candidate, even though Barack Obama is leading in Florida and has had more leads in polls than Mitt Romney has, in addition to winning Florida in 2008.

None of these sites shows Romney leading in the electoral math, and that is what decides the election.

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