Hillary Clinton will win tonight, here’s why

2016 US Presidential Election predictionIf you just want my prediction, here it is:

Hillary Clinton: 322 electoral votes
Donald Trump: 216 electoral votes

If you’d like to know why, then there’s four things you need to know about polling right now:

1. National polls don’t matter. They’ve never mattered and the media should stop using them. US Presidential elections are decided by state votes, whoever wins the most electoral votes – each state has at least 1 and the number is based roughly on population – wins the Presidency.

Hillary Clinton will easily win California and its 55 electoral votes. That number – 55– comes from the total number of Representatives and Senators the state has, with the former being based on population determined by the most recent census. California has the most EVs because it has the largest population, while North Dakota has 3 EVs because hardly anybody (by comparison) lives there.

It takes 270 EVs to win the election.

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Thoughts on the VP debate

Profile pictures of Time Kaine and Mike Pence, October 2016.

My hot take on who won the Pence vs. Kaine debate is that Tim Kaine won simply because he did his job being a proxy debater for Hillary Clinton. Mike Pence lost because he pretty successfully pitched the 2016 Republican Party agenda — a good bit of which his running mate doesn’t support — instead of being a proxy for Donald Trump.

Pence did exactly what he knows how to do: argue for himself.

Had this been Pence vs Kaine for a Senate seat, Pence wins because of that. But it’s not. Pence did zero damage to Hillary Clinton and Kaine, by repeating a lot of the unpopular and contradictory things Trump has said, reminded people they aren’t voting for Mike Pence, they’re voting for Trump. And Pence just didn’t want to do that.

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Beware your prophets

Michael Barone's 2012 battleground predictions.I’d like to think that the pundit right learned something from the 2012 election, but it doesn’t seem that way. When polls said Barack Obama was leading, they decided it wasn’t true, that those polls were biased and only they knew the truth. They were all “skewed” by firms in the bag for Democrats. Then Obama won the election proving that most pollsters were unbiased, non-partisan and spot on.

Republicans/conservatives were left with two choices: Again embrace the flawed logic that got them in trouble in 2012, or examine where they went wrong and fix what was broken.

They went with the latter.

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Today’s biggest deficit problem: A Clueless America

Paul Krugman wondered what a poll would look like asking people what has happened to the federal budget deficit over the past three years or so, while writing about Rand Paul either lying or being unforgivably ignorant about this issue.

He linked to a poll from 1996 showing the public wrongly “knowing” that the budget deficit had increased during the Clinton years when it had plummeted and then turned into a surplus.

Google jumped in and ran a survey which showed similar results: a plurality of Americans believe that the budget deficit has “increased a lot” since 2010, when in fact it has fallen from $1.3 trillion in late 2009 to an estimated $700 billion by the end of this year. Only 11.8% of Americans correctly know that the deficit is plummeting.

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PRESIDENT OBAMA’S TERRIBLE, HORRIBLE, NO GOOD, VERY BAD WEEK

Laughing ObamaEllen Carmichael is a former communications director for Herman Cain’s presidential campaign and a propagandist in the truest sense of the word. Reading her Twitter stream is no different than reading press releases from the Republican National Committee, or in this case, literally repeating verbatim, press releases from the Romney Campaign that look like they were written by a stupid and vindictive child.

If there is one place to see the opposite of reality, this is it.

This Tweet came from this embarrassing press release published on September 7th, carrying the title “PRESIDENT OBAMA’S TERRIBLE, HORRIBLE, NO GOOD, VERY BAD WEEK”.

I sincerely hope that the Romney campaign isn’t paying money to have these written.

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