35 days: Early voting battle sees Dems top GOP in Iowa 3-to-1, GOP tops in NC 1.7-to-1

Early votingBarack Obama’s lead in the Real Clear Politics average is back up to 4 points. Mitt Romney hasn’t lead a poll since September 16th, when he lead with Rasmussen by 2. Obama has otherwise lead 28 of the last 29 polls, and lead or tied 31/32, and 77 of 87 going back to May.

Light news today with most of the political press traveling to Denver, and thus the world is suddenly a better place for a day.


The first Presidential debate is tomorrow, October 3rd. It’s scheduled to air on NBC, CBS, ABC, FOX, and PBS for over-the-air national networks. The cable lineup is: CNN, FOX News, MSNBC, CNBC, FOX Business, Current TV, Blaze TV, and CSPAN for English language networks.

Google will broadcast all the debates live on YouTube. It’s almost certain that the HuffingtonPost and Politico will broadcast their analysis shows live online as well, before and after the debate.

Election News

– Pennsylvania’s voter ID law has been iced by a state judge until after the election. It appears that the state government is either in disarray, or committing fraud, still telling people that ID is required. Mississippi’s law has been postponed as well.

Important: Rasmussen’s swing state polling aggregate has Obama leading by 5 points. He’s lead or tied in this model since September 20th. With Rasmussen leaning to the right, that lead could be even larger, beyond being stable.

– Seen on Twitter: 43,856 absentee ballots already returned in Iowa, 63% from Democrats, 20% from Republicans. 247,312 were requested, 58% Dem, 20% GOP; 16,357 returned in in North Carolina, 51% GOP, 30% Dem.

Nate Silver: Is the Presidential Race Tightening Heading Into the Debates?

– Newspaper endorsements are starting to roll in, and Mitt Romney leads them 2-to-1.

– Dispatches from the campaign that can’t shoot straight today: @ThePlumLineGS: Dueling GOP talking points: 1) Obama/Biden out of touch with economic suffering 2) Biden admits economic suffering under Obama

– The retort: He’s “been saying all year and again… today, the middle class was punished by the failed Bush policies’

Nate Silver: “The fact that Drudge is trying to make news would weigh against the hypothesis that the polls are tightening.”


– The Benghazi consulate was attacked at least two previous times, and for what it’s worth, a lot of places like that were attacked and damaged during the Bush administration. And of course if you’re going down the road of ignoring warnings and security, there will always be 9/11.

– As the economy goes, so goes Obama? Economic confidence up 8% in September.

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