Monthly Archives: November 2012

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Dick Morris has learned nothing

Dick Morris is so consistently wrong about everything he says, that he’s almost God-like in predicting what things will come true if you believe the exact opposite of what he says.

Here he is about why Mitt Romney lost Ohio:

But the real reason is that the whites who supported Romney didn’t turn out to vote. Just look at the fact, brought to my attention by National Review and Washington Examiner columnist Byron York, that Obama carried Ohio by 107,000 votes (some are still being counted) and that Romney got about 100,000 fewer votes than McCain! (2,677,820 for McCain v. 2,583,580 for Romney). Romney really lost by failing to turn out his base even as Obama was doing a very good job of getting his to the polls.

One of the reasons I wanted to wait a week or two for my post election analysis was to wait for slow states to fully count things like absentee ballots, so that we have a complete picture of the popular vote before making conclusions. This is why you don’t do that. The above post by Morris isn’t even a day old, yet it’s already out of date for election returns. Ohio is reporting at 90% as I wrote this post and the gap between Romney’s votes and McCain’s in 2008 is already down to 84,041.

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Maine GOP Chairman to investigate why there are black people in Maine

Can’t make this stuff up, and I suspect if you could find every article like this in existence, only then would you ever have a complete explanation for why Mitt Romney lost:

The chairman of Maine’s Republican Party, Charlie Webster, is investigating a very suspicious case of voting while black.

Webster made the claim in a wide-ranging, post-election interview this week with Don Carrigan of WCSH-TV.

“In some parts of rural Maine, there were dozens, dozens of black people who came in and voted on Election Day,” he said. “Everybody has a right to vote, but nobody in (these) towns knows anyone who’s black. How did that happen? I don’t know. We’re going to find out.”

The GOP is well on its way towards winning the minority vote in 2014 and 2016. I can just feel in. It’s a hunch I have.

Rubio joins Jindall in rebuking Limbaugh and Romney

I think it’s clear now that yes, a split is going to form in the Republican Party, and the first fight is going to be over how to frame Mitt Romney’s election fail. Marco Rubio, the pundit class’s front-runner for the 2016 GOP nomination, is joining Bobby Jindal in pushing back against Rush Limbaugh’s meme that everyone who voted for Barack Obama just want “free stuff”. Romney picked that excuse amongst the others orbiting the toilet drain since the election ended.

This argument isn’t new for Romney, as I’m sure you’re all familiar with his infamous 47% comments. What’s worth noting is that most conservatives ran away from those comments when they came out and more than just a few openly blamed them for Romney’s loss, if he did in fact go on to lose.

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The Deconstruction of Falling Stars

Rather than writing some lengthy dissertation on the 2012 election, I think I’ll opt for a series of short thoughts that, like non-partisan polling analysis, allows people to consider everything and then form their own conclusions.

After listening to most of what Rush Limbaugh has had to say since November 7th (I opted to listen to his show for myself), it occurred to me this afternoon that the new conservative meme of couched racism as a kind of caulk to repair breaches in their information filters and ecosphere created by the poll denial disaster has a fatal flaw: Jews and women.

Before I get to that, let me explain how I’ve arrived at the racism angle.

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The Long Night

Everything that needs to be said has already been said. So here are poll closing times for some important states:

7:00pm EST: Florida (except Western panhandle), New Hampshire, Virginia.

7:30pm EST: North Carolina, Ohio.

8:00pm EST: Florida Western panhandle, Pennsylvania.

9:00pm EST: Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin

10:00pm EST: Iowa, Nevada.

The final analysis and projection of all battleground states:

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30 hours: Intersections in Real Time

I strongly urge people only to dismiss information if they have a good justification for believing that it’s wrong, or not relevant. Disliking or disagreeing with it isn’t enough. So I will from time-to-time listen to conservative talk radio.

You have to hand it to these guys, Limbaugh and Beck. They are smooth talkers. It’s like they are talking to you, not a radio microphone. It’s almost smoothing and it’s very disarming. It’s why they are as popular and successful as they are.

I credit Limbaugh today with being intelligent enough to know that polls don’t make sense to him, but he doesn’t understand why. Here’s why.

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Landslide watch, or idiot watch?

I was directed to this story by Jim Hoft (aka Gatewaypundit) by a reader and was instantly overwhelmed with curiosity. Anyone that follows me on Twitter has already seen the result, but for those who haven’t, the big question in my mind after reading that story is whether Hoft was simply playing to his built-in audience, trying to pump up the base in the hope of giving Mitt Romney the extra turnout he needs to not lose the race he’s going to lose, or if he’s genuinely stupid.

My first thought is that nobody can be that stupid.

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One Day: No Surrender, No Retreat

There are 38 hours and 29 minutes until the election, as I write this.

It’s a bit early in the day to do detailed polling, with more polls due to drop before the evening. But here’s what today looks like as of right now:

ec battleground(Updated below with a new version of this graphic with North Carolina spelled correctly, and more recent polling data.)

Something to note is that these numbers are going to start moving more than they have been until now, because Ipsos is polling almost all of these states daily. Every day I will remove one Ipsos poll from the average just to add another. I looked at the poll data and these are dedicated state polls, not breakouts of national polls, so I’m leaving them in. But consider things to be just a bit more noisy now because of that.

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Two Days: And So It Begins

For those whom the election matters the least:

There are 57 hours and 17 minutes until the 2012 election, as I write these words at 6:42p EST.

The most important data I’m working with is a daily average of the last five polls taken in eight swing states. Today I’m introducing another dimension: margin of error. But first, here’s how things have changed in the last 24 hours.

Barack Obama increased his lead in Colorado from 1 point yesterday to 2.2 points today, in Ohio from 2.4 points to 3, and Nevada from 3.6 points to 4. His lead slipped in Iowa from 3.2 points to 2.4, New Hampshire from 3.6 to 3.2, and Virginia from 2 points to 1.6. Mitt Romney took back the lead in Florida to 0.6 points, from a 0.2 point deficit, largely on the back of an outlier poll from Mason Dixon showing Romney up by 6 points.

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3 Days: It’s time to say it, Mitt Romney is in deep shit.

There are 3 full days until the election, or 3 days, 11 hours, 18 minutes, and about 10 seconds as I type this sentence around 4:41pm EST.

And Mitt Romney is in deep shit.

It’s come to that. That is, believe it or not, still non-partisan analysis. Something people tend not to take into account is that an average lead of X points in a given state two weeks out is probably twice as robust when it’s only 3-4 days out from the election. I don’t know exactly how to calculate this, but Nate Silver has said that a lead of 2.6 points with about six days left “should convert to a victory about 80 percent of the time”. With a little over half that time left, that 80% figure surely has increased. By how much, I’m not sure. But Silver’s model puts Obama at 80.5% to win Ohio this afternoon, and his average lead is around 2.4 points. The loss of 0.2 points probably kept his chances of winning the state from moving much higher.

But the time factor can’t be expressed in strong enough terms. It takes time to moves polls and there’s precious little time left for Mitt Romney to make up ground in Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, and protect his crumbling lead in Florida.

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