The Long Night

Everything that needs to be said has already been said. So here are poll closing times for some important states:

7:00pm EST: Florida (except Western panhandle), New Hampshire, Virginia.

7:30pm EST: North Carolina, Ohio.

8:00pm EST: Florida Western panhandle, Pennsylvania.

9:00pm EST: Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin

10:00pm EST: Iowa, Nevada.

The final analysis and projection of all battleground states:

Final battlegroundAnd my final electoral map for the 2012 Presidential election:

Final ec map

You can get more detailed and bleeding-edge data on the state of the count by just watching this web page, and see a plethora of electoral college projections from experts and pundits here. Whenever it says there are new tweets to load, just click that text.

Good night, and good luck.

Update 3:57p EST
I wasn’t going to do this, but fuck it. Here’s the first of election day news. A judge in Pennsylvania has issued an order to allow partisan Republican poll watchers into polls in the state who were being excluded, most likely by Democrats who regularly watch polls in the state which is normally ignored by Republicans. It doesn’t sound nefarious, but it was a big enough issue that the courts got involved and now settled. Then there’s this, which is not good:

Meanwhile, some voters are finding their names are not on voter lists when they show up to vote, according to the Committee of Seventy, a nonpartisan election watchdog for Philadelphia.

The Committee said it had received “numerous reports” of the problem, which it said seems to apply to any voters whose registrations were processed after Oct. 23. “An issue seems to be whether these new, late-processed registrations made it to the polling place on time for Election Day,” the organization said in a statement.

Ms. Jamerson of the D.A.’s office said registered voters whose names do not appear on the voter rolls would be allowed to cast provisional ballots.

And this, which is bad:

The committee also reported both voting machines at one polling place have broken down. Voters are being told to cast provisional ballots but at least 30 have just walked away, the group said.

And this, which is just funny:

Ms. Jamerson dismissed media reports that Black Panthers had been intimidating voters at some polling places. She said the District Attorneys office had received 30 phone calls by 10 a.m. alleging such intimidation but that officials had found only one member of the militant group at a polling station, and that person was holding the door for voters, she said.

And a rogue election official in Oregon has been fired and put under criminal investigation for tampering with ballots to help Republican candidates.

Update 4:21p
I’m running a bit behind here, it seems that those broken voting machines in Pennsylvania have already been fixed. A judge in Texas extended voting by two hours in a district in Galveston because polling places opened late. 

A much bigger problem comes in PA where the state voter ID law was iced by a federal judge: voters are being illegally turned away in Bucks and Delaware County for not having ID. And so it begins. 

Update 4:53p
For conservatives who think polls showing Dem turnout higher than 2008 is junk, it’s really not. We already know that early turnout in North Carolina is well above 2008 levels for a fact. Now we know the same is the case for Virginia (per VA Board of Elections). Given how ugly and tight this all is, is it really that hard for anyone to believe that overall turnout is going to be higher than last time? It also seems like a foregone conclusion to me. 

Update 5:07p
Wisconsin is predicting 3 million turnout this year, up from 2.99 million last year. That’s not a start being honestly contested.

Update 6:49p
Drudge had exit polls like this:

Romney: North Carolina, Florida
Obama: Ohio, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada
Tossup: Virginia, Colorado, Iowa

Then I guess someone pointed out to him that this scenario means that Obama wins. So Drudge quickly moved Ohio to tossup. Cute, no?

Many states are confirming a 2008 turnout model that’s *slightly* more Republican, which frankly is what just about every poll has showed this year. The GOP complaints about over-sampled Democrats, according to turnout today, has been a complete bust.

Update 7:19p
Not much point in reporting actual results here since you’re most likely getting them from TV, but for those who aren’t, NBC has called Vermont for Obama, and Indiana and Kentucky for Romney, as expected. Obama is leading very early in Virginia, less than 1% returns. Party ID so far in Virginia is 39% Democratic, 33% Republican, and 28% unaffiliated. Not all that different than polls that conservatives have claimed for weeks were skewed. But again, it’s 1% returns. Virtually meaningless. 

Update 9:18p
FOX News and NBC have called Pennsylvania for Obama with just 7% of the vote in. It was never a tossup. I told you it wasn’t. Romney had only lead two polls and tied in another there all year. That’s not a tossup. It was spin from the Romney campaign that the media obediently accepted and amplified.

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