Here are four snap polls for the third and final debate.
CNN was out first, with Obama “winning” 48-40 among registered voters, an eight point margin. CNN continues to use a skewed sample that has more Republicans than any of their other national polls this year, so unbalanced that Wolf Blitzer has had to state a disclaimer every time they reference the poll on air. It’s unclear why CNN continues to do this.
PPP was next with a poll that covered Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. Obama “won” in that composite 53-42, an eleven point margin. They promise more details and more results tomorrow and Wednesday. But for now, Obama won with independents 55-40 (+15), women 57-39 (+18), and men 48-45 (+3).
Google issued another survey which tracks with the other polls, showing Obama “winning” 45-35.
Finally, CBS found that Obama “won” massively, 53-23 (+30). That’s up from 37-30 after debate #2, and losing 46-22 in debate #1. In other words, Obama’s performances with CBS look like this:
#1. Lost by 24 points.
#2. Won by 7 points.
#3. Won by 30 points.
The takeaway: if you watched CNN’s dial test of undecided voters during the third debate, you probably noticed that Obama did mediocre with men and killed it with women for about the entire debate. You can explain most of Obama’s weakness and Romney’s closing performance since the first debate with Obama’s small lead with women, compared to the big lead he had in September.
If Obama’s performance amongst women in that CBS poll translates to gains amongst women in even some of those swing states that PPP surveyed, then Obama is going to gain over the next two weeks. The only question would be by how much.