Daily Archives: September 28, 2012

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39 Days: Obama leads in every single tossup/battleground state

I wrote yesterday that you’re going to be seeing a lot more stories doing postmortem on Mitt Romney’s campaign, as the inevitability of his defeat sets in because of polling and the electoral mountain that Romney simply can’t reasonably clime without a major outside event. It has already begun.

My sources for electoral college projections have been limited to reliable sources, and I’ve still been unable to find any projections from conservative sites, papers, news orgs, or pundits. Is that because they know how hard it would be to fake an electoral projection, versus faking polls like Rasmussen does? Or because they simply aren’t invested in “news” enough to bother?

Regardless, I’ve expanded my sources by five of varying credibility. For credible sources, between Real Clear Politics, CNN, and Talking Points Memo, Obama leads Romney 278 to 191, with 270 needed to win. Those sites still have tossup states undecided. Between Nate Silver/538 and Pollster, Obama leads 324 to 317 without any tossups.

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